Abduction

Not of the extra-terrestrial sort, but a kind of logic.

Roger Martin, in The Business of Design, suggests that most businesses are run by two forms of logic, deductive and inductive. These two ways of reasoning have been extremely dominant ways of thinking for the body politic since the Renaissance, as far as I can tell. Progression of knowledge and creativity has been the result of a select few great minds fighting tooth and nail against the prevailing wisdom of past experience and status quo.

As an alternative to the stifling bog of pessimism and resignation, Martin suggests abductive reasoning, a sort of guessing we do all the time.

A simple definition of each form of logic:

• DEDUCTIVE: from the general evidence to the specific conclusion
• INDUCTIVE: from the specific observation to the general, probable, principle
• ABDUCTIVE: explanatory, economical hypothesis derived from observation of phenomena

Deductive and inductive logic are great for the refining and honing of current knowledge, for iterative development. They start with existing knowledge (whether specific or general) and derive a course of action from there. The next step is always taken from the current point of departure, where you are already standing. The sales figures say the these cars sell well and those do not. Therefore, we should make more of these (deduction). Or we observe that people are buying minivans, so we should produce more minivans (induction).

Here's the kicker: neither of these will get you a car that both sells well and has never been on the market before.

Abductive logic differs from the other two forms of logic in that it affords possibility. We can hear that people are grumbling about their vehicles, and we can make inferences and build solutions based on the needs of car-owners and drivers that has little or nothing to do with what cars they have owned in the past or currently own.

This form of logic affords validity, and does not exclusively prefer reliability. Reliability is an inherent part of abductive reasoning because abduction is also a form of simplification. We choose the simplest, or most economical, solution out of infinite possibilities because it "makes the most sense." We are extremely good at this and need only to consciously foster its development.